The Politico -  May 1, 2007

 

County reflects Calif. mood swing

By: David Mark

 

imi Valley, Calif. — Scanning the horizon from the hilltop Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, California's political complexities and changing demographics are on vivid display — blue-collar cities hugging the Pacific coast, middle- and upper-middle-class tract homes farther inland, expanses of arable farmland to the north and mountains reaching altitudes of 8,500 feet farther east.

Welcome to Ventura County, signpost of California's rapidly shifting demographics — a political puzzle that Republican White House hopefuls must master to win the state's Feb. 5, 2008, primary and, possibly, its jackpot of 55 electoral votes in November. Ten GOP presidential candidates on  Thursday will present themselves to voters in Ventura County and across the nation, at the first Republican

Joel Kotkin at his home in Valley Village, CA. Photo by Robert A. Reeder

candidates debate, sponsored by the Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley in conjunction with The Politico and MSNBC.

Ventura has been more kind to Republican White House aspirants in the past than have other parts of the Golden State — President Bush outpolled John Kerry here in 2004, 52 percent to 48 percent, while Kerry crushed Bush statewide, 54 percent to 45 percent.

But a shift of Hispanic voters toward the Democratic column, the movement of Democrats and independents into traditionally conservative regions like Ventura County and the rising popularity of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's brand of "post-partisan" centrism present a daunting challenge for GOP contenders in 2008. GOP Presidential Debate

In Ventura County and in California overall, "everything seems to be edging toward a socially liberal but economically conservative" population, said Joel Kotkin, a Los Angeles-based leading scholar on urban growth and political demographics. "You now have the inner city and the affluent suburbs voting the same way."

Like much of California, Ventura County's oceanfront and slightly inland cities and towns are heavily Democratic and increasingly Hispanic. Farther inland in the county of 817,000 people, the terrain becomes considerably more Republican and conservative, with particularly high levels of frustration about illegal immigration.

To the southwest is a cluster of politically competitive cities, including Thousand Oaks and Agoura Hills — traditionally middle-class communities with good school systems and teeming with young professional families priced out of the housing market across the Los Angeles County line. And farmland forms a backbone of the local economy: In 2004, farm and nursery products brought in $1.4 billion.

Perhaps of most interest to politicians: When it comes to voter registration in Ventura County, as in California as a whole, the fastest-growing group is those who "decline to state." According to county figures updated on April 19, 65,800 people declined to list a party affiliation, compared with 147,401 registered Republicans and 142,294 Democrats.

These independents are becoming an increasingly sought-after voting bloc, as reflected in Schwarzenegger's 2006 reelection romp, where he campaigned on a platform that stressed environmentalism and infrastructure growth as much as traditional GOP philosophies of less government spending and lower taxes.

Political strategists in California keep a close eye on voters' moods in Ventura County because it is a reliable bellwether of presidential politics: Since 1920, residents here have supported the winner in every presidential contest except that of 1976, when voters backed President Gerald Ford in his losing race against Jimmy Carter.

The county's support for Bush over the past two election cycles closely mirrored the nation as a whole, even as California threw its support solidly behind the Democratic nominees. But while Republicans still sport an edge in voter registration, the Democrats' deficit has been halved in just the past two years, and the level of independent voters grew by more than 15 percent during the same period.

That's a direct reflection of the shift among Hispanic voters toward Democrats, giving Ventura County's electorate — and California's — considerably bluer tints, said Mark DiCamillo, director of the California Field Poll. Latinos in Ventura County make up about 36 percent of the county, compared with 35 percent statewide. Latinos are increasingly voting for Democrats by a ratio of 3-to-1, and sometimes as much as 5-to-1, DiCamillo said.

"They've been comprising greater proportions of the electorate each time," DiCamillo said. "It's a tough deficit (for Republicans) to have to start out from. That structural advantage is yet to be halted."

So in 2008, California will be a tough win for the eventual GOP nominee, as Republican votes inland are being increasingly offset by the immigrant votes along the coast. "You would need a heck of a candidate on the Republican side" to upend the Democratic trend, DiCamillo said.

A recent Field Poll showed Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama beating Republicans Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, DiCamillo noted.

Timm Herdt, Sacramento bureau chief for the Ventura County Star and a 30-year veteran of the paper, said Republicans could perform better in Ventura County and in California under the right circumstances.

"A Giuliani or a 2000 version of McCain could potentially make it competitive," Herdt said. "Schwarzenegger's shown that just having a Republican label doesn't disqualify you from winning California. I don't think Democrats could just put California in the bank."

The political implications of movement among independents and Democrats to traditionally conservative regions — in Ventura County and suburbs across California — cannot be ignored, said demographer Kotkin.

Ventura County was once a refuge from pricy Los Angeles, but to the chagrin of locals, that is changing — even modest homes in working-class Oxnard and the city of Ventura now go for more than $600,000.

And following the lead of Silicon Valley to the north, Ventura County is now going high-tech, latching on to the industry that turned California into an economic powerhouse in recent decades. U.S. Route 101, a main corridor of Ventura County, is filled with high-tech firms of various sizes.

Mike Osborn, chairman of the Ventura County Republican Party, said Democrats ought to temper their excitement about making political gains in Ventura County and should be careful about taking California for granted in the general election. He points to the areas immediately around the Reagan Library, Simi Valley and its environs, and notes it has consistently stayed in the GOP camp.

"The Republican Party is alive and well in Ventura County" and California, Osborn said.

The Ventura County Star's Herdt agrees. While Ventura County demographics have shifted significantly over the years, he noted that there are still plenty of Republican strongholds. Simi Valley remains a favorite domicile for Los Angeles Police Department officers and others in law enforcement. The local U.S. representative, Republican Elton Gallegly, is an outspoken foe of illegal immigration.

Like predominantly white inland areas throughout California, Herdt said, "the areas within shouting distance of the Reagan library are indeed Reagan country."

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