Ventura County Star  - February 22, 2008

 

 

New kind of community on horizon
Distinction between cities, suburbs should erode in future, author says

By Allison Bruce

 

ommunities could undergo an evolution in the next 20 to 30 years that erodes the distinction between cities and suburbs by creating more self-sustaining communities, according to futurist Joel Kotkin.

"We're going to have to look at places like Conejo Valley," Kotkin said. "This is where the future is going to take place."

It's a matter of figuring out how to do it so it works well, said the author of "The City: A Global History."

Kotkin spoke Thursday at the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project's program on Ventura County's economic outlook for 2008 at California Lutheran University in Thousand Oaks.

He discussed the history of urbanization in the United States, with people converging in large cities during the Industrial Revolution and later moving to the suburbs. He then focused on the future of cities.

"We need to have a different kind of community," Kotkin said.

Cities and suburbs are going to change as they accommodate more people. And there are new advances in transportation and telecommunications technology, with more demand for social sustainability.

Kotkin believes that the model is more like Los Angeles and less like New York City.

But he also thinks that the model is one that will create small, self-sufficient communities, where people live near work or telecommute from home — as opposed to bedroom communities.

Such communities will be more environmentally sustainable over time as they develop centers where people don't have long commutes and are surrounded by open space and agricultural land, he said.

City amenities, such as colleges and arts centers, are now moving to the suburbs.

Kotkin said Thousand Oaks' Civic Arts Plaza is a good example.

Of course, there are other things that the community could do to become more self-sustaining, such as a walkable downtown.

"That would not kill you," he told the crowd.

Many older communities have revitalized downtown districts to make them more pedestrian-friendly. Thousand Oaks has some sense of that in its malls and lifestyle centers, but could do more, he said.

"Some idea of a focus of urban life in Thousand Oaks would be a positive step," he said.

Thursday's program was held at CLU so that residents in the east county would have a chance to hear the UCSB economic forecast without having to travel to the west county as in previous years. The presentation at the Lundring Events Center attracted more than 160 people.

The forecast will be presented again today at the Residence Inn by Marriott in Oxnard.

Kirk Lesh, a real estate economist with the Economic Forecast Project, talked about the turmoil in the overall real estate market.

He said there are signs of weakness in the commercial market, which has done fairly well until now.

Struggling retail sales and increased Internet sales that don't demand a storefront have kept merchants from expanding across the country and in Ventura County, he said.

Office vacancy rates have gone up, and there is worry that Bank of America's acquisition of Countrywide Financial Corp. could lead to jobs being moved out of state.

If that happens, Countrywide's office space could be placed on the market. There's also more industrial space available in the county than there is demand.

In the residential market, Lesh said the median home price is expected to continue declining through 2010, with home sales not picking up until 2009.

He did not predict a recession for Ventura County, but the housing situation could get a lot worse if one occurs. Other things that might make it tougher is if the credit standards continue to tighten or if Countrywide employees are relocated, he said.

Although Lesh said the economic stimulus package could help move some buyers into the market by making it easier to secure large loans, the package's tax rebates are not expected to have much effect.

Bill Watkins, executive director of the UCSB Economic Forecast Project, argued that people who receive tax rebate checks will put that money into savings or pay off credit card debt or other bills.

He called it "a complete waste of time."

Despite that, Watkins said the county, state and nation should miss a recession.

"Are we in a recession? Not even close," he said. "I'll show you some numbers."

He put up a slide with a bar chart showing economic growth in the U.S. Although it was slowing — reaching 0.6 percent growth in the first quarter of 2007 — nothing on the chart was negative.

Ventura County's growth for 2008 is expected to be 1.1 percent, which is very low but not negative.

Industrial productivity is climbing, the unemployment rate is still low and people are still buying goods, Watkins said.

"Will we have a recession?" he asked. "I can guarantee you we will have another recession some day."

But he doesn't think that there will be one now. California is more volatile than the U.S., outpacing the nation when times are good and doing worse when times are troubled, Watkins said.

"Volatility does not imply recession," he said.

***