The Wall Street Journal - Reis.com
- August, 2001
Immigration Spreads
Throughout Nation
ames Johnson was born in the rural south, in the tiny
hamlet of Falkland, N.C., and grew up in a society sharply divided between black
and white, much as it had been since well before the Civil War. "The only
time we saw someone who was not black or white," the University of North
Carolina business professor recalls, "was on TV or occasionally during the
summer in the fields."
Today Johnson, also a scholar at the Kenan Institute in Chapel Hill
University, sees the emergence of a very different North Carolina - a state that
is becoming one of the fastest growing immigrant hubs in the country. Drawn by
the region's buoyant economy, new immigrants, largely from Central America and
Mexico, have poured into the region, drastically changing its long-established
racial character and adding to its basic economic vitality. Since the mid-1990s,
immigration to North Carolina has risen by 73%, the largest such increase in the
nation. Three of the top four regions in the country with the strongest increase
in Latino immigration are in the state.
Of course, in relative terms -- compared to California, Texas, Florida, or
New York -- the Hispanic population remains modest, barely 5% of the total
population, according to the 2000 Census. In comparison, Black Americans account
for over one fifth of all state residents. Yet the economic, social and
political implications of this immigration, Johnson maintains, are profound, and
just in their early stages. Over the past decade, he points out, Hispanics under
the age of 18 actually grew more in absolute numbers than African-Americans in
North Carolina. In some districts, particularly in the tech-rich Piedmont,
communities like Charlotte (now home to over 50,000 Hispanic immigrants), and
Raleigh-Durham, Latinos now account for over 30% of all school children. Similar
patterns are emerging in many other Southern cities such as Atlanta, Houston and
Nashville. "You are seeing a shift in the South, particularly, into a
society that is changing more into the kind of thing you see in Los Angeles and
other places," observes Johnson, who is best known for his earlier research
on black "return" to the South from the Northeast and California.
Fastest
Growing Hispanic Cities
Hispanic Population and Growth (1990-2000) |
|
Source: Census Bureau
Analysis by: William Frey |
The new immigration patterns have forced some demographers, such as the
University of Michigan's William Frey, to reassess their 1990s analysis of
America's changing racial profile. Formerly Frey saw America as divided between
immigrant "magnets", such as Los Angeles and New York, and areas like
Las Vegas and North Carolina, that were primarily luring domestic migrants.
Although the "magnets" remain the dominant immigrant centers, Frey
suggests a more diverse profile is now emerging in some new areas outside the
traditional coastal "gateway" centers. "New immigration to
regions like the South, as well as the Intermountain West," he says,
"reflects the essential strength of these region's economies." Along
with North Carolina, the fastest growing immigrant states include Nevada,
Virginia, Arizona, Utah and Oregon. This "browning" of more and more
of metropolitan America seems inevitable and something that, along with other
indicators, suggests where economic activity is shifting. Between now and 2050,
according to the U.S. Census projections, the nationwide Hispanic population is
expected to rise by over 200% while the Asian population is slated to grow by
400%. This compares to a mere 50% increase for the overall population, and a
mere 29% for whites.
Fastest
Growing Asian Cities
Hispanic Population and Growth (1990-2000) |
|
Source: Census Bureau
Analysis by: William Frey |
Investors looking for the mid or long term should recognize that this
population is generally younger, more economically active and likely to remain
in the workforce far longer than either white or black populations. On a
regional basis, it is already clear that the fastest growth in immigrant groups,
both Latino and Asian, occurred in those cities that did best in the 1990s --
boomtowns like Atlanta, Orlando. Fla., Reno, Nev., Salt Lake City, and
Charlotte. In the process, at least two once predominately white cities, Phoenix
and Las Vegas, are now on the verge of becoming "minority majority"
melting pots. Economics, Frey and sociologist Johnson agree, are driving these
changes. Without the new immigrants, and their children, the labor market in
these states would be severely constrained enough to stall growth. Latinos now
dominate the blue-collar workforce in such industries as food processing and
construction, as companies recruit Spanish-speaking workers from both
traditional immigrant hubs in South Texas and Southern California, often using
Spanish language media. At the same time, Frey explains, the Latino immigrants
come to perform service work for areas where there is a burgeoning white middle
class population. This allows regions to provide the kind of amenities many
upwardly mobile workers expect. "A lot of this migration is being driven by
the migration of middle class whites," he says. "They have high levels
of service needs that Latinos can fill."
Although they tend to be moving to similar high-growth areas, Asian
immigrants represent somewhat different phenomena. Many Asians, Frey notes, are
very well educated and tend to cluster in areas that have experienced rapid
rates of high-tech growth. Some of the highest numbers of Asian-Indian
immigration are in places such as Austin, the Silicon Valley suburb of
Sunnyvale, Calif., and the north Dallas suburb of Plano, Texas. The North
Carolina hub of Charlotte, with its strong base of professional and financial
service base, has also been attractive to these generally well-educated Indian
immigrants. Ultimately, these changes will have a profound impact on lifestyles,
commerce and politics in these emerging regions. On the negative side, some
California-style multi-racial ethnic conflict could spread to parts of the
country, notably the South, where it has not existed in the past. "You have
some tensions with blacks both in rural counties, where Latinos work in the
factories, and in the inner cities," suggests Professor Johnson, who
formerly taught at UCLA before moving to the University of North Carolina.
This could worsen in the near term. The national economic slow down, such as
occurred in California in the early 1990s, could lead both blacks and working
class whites to blame job losses on "foreigners." It is also possible,
says Frey, that the immigration into the Southern and Inter-mountain west cities
could prove transitory, as hard times force migrants back to more traditional
ethnic clusters along the coast. But this is not likely, given the long-term
health of these economies. Among business leaders, there are many who, like
Johnson, see the new immigration -- both Asian and Latino -- as helping
transform North Carolina cities like Charlotte into more competitive global
cities. He cites the early phases of Latino and Asian business development as
adding a new and important economic stimulus to the state's urban regions, which
have generally lagged behind the suburban areas. But perhaps more important, he
believes immigration will also accelerate the integration of the traditionally
insular South into the wider global economy. Much like Southern California,
which underwent a similar process in the 1970s and 1980s, Southern cities, and
some in the West as well, are now poised to enter a new, and more sophisticated,
level of economic and cultural evolution.
"We are entering a critical transition point in our development,"
Johnson maintains. "This is a competitive issue for us in the long-term.
People used to talk about getting on trade missions to Mexico or Asia, but now
you can access those markets right here." What will be critical for
Southern and other emerging immigrant areas, Johnson suggests, is adapting the
educational and political systems to the newcomers. Programs such as English as
a Second Language, the encouragement of ethnic entrepreneurship and greater
awareness of cultural diversity are part of the necessary regional response to
the change in demographics. With its racial history, the South, in particular,
needs to make the newcomers feel comfortable about their choice to move there.
"It's not about political correctness for us to welcome these people,"
Johnson says. "It's enlightened self interest."
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